Dr. Jain (Chief Editor of the IBF’s Journal of Business Forecasting), and I have recently been collaborating on an article that is a wake up call for Planning organizations to have their house in order so they can recognize the signals for an economic recovery. I am a proponent for completeness and integrity of...
Read more »
It is bad enough that consumer behavior is never 100 percent predictable, but the unpredictable behavior of management also compounds forecasting errors. Over the years I have relived the following situation so much that it has almost become a predictable behavior. Once a month, among my many forecasts, I submit a 30/60/90 day outlook...
Read more »
DOW up, DOW down; oil prices spike, oil prices spiral down; jobless claims up, jobless claims steady!! The news is full of contradictions. Is it the start of recovery after what was termed the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression or are we still in the midst of a perfect storm? We think...
Read more »
Who defines and says what are best practices? The person speaking? The loudest voice? The person with the most expensive shoes? The person with the most impressive degree? Maybe it is the highest paid consultant? We hired a consulting group and have implemented what we believe to be a best practice consulting group. In...
Read more »
No matter where you place the forecasting function, you will have a bias in forecasts unless you create an independent department. Production people tend to over-forecast because it gives them fewer headaches resulting from out of stocks. But if they are evaluated on the basis of inventory, they would prefer under-forecasts. Salespeople have a...
Read more »
I was asked recently to clarify my previous objections to a “One Number” planning world! In the late 90’s and early 2000’s there was a movement underfoot to drive the entire organization from a single operating number. In theory that would be a good thing as long as you have the right number. Too...
Read more »
