Blog Archives

SKU Rationalization: Improving Forecast Accuracy and Profitability

August 16, 2012
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SKU Rationalization: Improving Forecast Accuracy and Profitability

Tweet IBF’s LinkedIn discussion group presently features a  lively conversation going on about SKU rationalization, a favorite topic of mine. Anthony Davidson initiated the conversation by posting the question,“…what key factors should be considered in determining which SKUs should be eliminated from the mix?” It is generally agreed upon that unchecked product proliferation will result…

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Should the Naïve Forecast be Your Default Forecast?

July 3, 2012
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Should the Naïve Forecast be Your Default Forecast?

Tweet Short answer: No. For the past month there has been a healthy discussion about forecast accuracy metrics on the Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning discussion group on LinkedIn. This was all prompted by the question, “How does one establish an acceptable target to measure against?” posed by Catherine Waudby, Volume Planning Specialist at…

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The Science of Forecasting

May 31, 2012
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The Science of Forecasting

Tweet We’re familiar with application of the scientific method in certain industries, such as Pharmaceuticals. When a new drug is introduced, we expect that its safety and efficacy has been demonstrated through appropriately controlled experiments. For example, to test a new cold remedy we would find 100 people with colds, randomly give half the new…

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Using Shipment History: A Deadly Sin?

April 20, 2012
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Using Shipment History: A Deadly Sin?

Tweet In his article titled “Seven Deadly Sins of Sales Forecasting” in the March 28 edition of APICS extra, Fred Tolbert compiled a useful list of bad practices than can worsen our forecasting, inventory management, and customer service results. I particularly liked Deadly Sin #5: Senior Management Meddling, and wrote about it on The Business…

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Forecasting Confessions of IBF Conference Attendees

March 5, 2012
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Forecasting Confessions of IBF Conference Attendees

Tweet At last weeks IBF Supply Chain Forecasting & Planning Conference in Scottsdale, AZ, I had the somber responsibility of facilitating three round table sessions on “Worst Practices in Business Forecasting.”  Thirty-eight of the biggest sinners in the forecasting/demand planning profession confessed to a variety of irresponsible and embarrassing behaviors that we can all learn…

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The Forecast for Scottsdale is Golf

February 13, 2012
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The Forecast for Scottsdale is Golf

Tweet There is less than two weeks before the IBF Supply Chain Forecasting  & Planning Conference in Scottsdale, AZ (February 26-28). The annual IBF Golf Outing is on Sunday, February 26. I myself am not a big fan of the sport (It costs too much, takes too long, and requires way too much social interaction). …

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IBF Discussion Group on LinkedIn: Changing Sales Forecast in the Same Month and Why?

January 18, 2012
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IBF Discussion Group on LinkedIn: Changing Sales Forecast in the Same Month and Why?

Tweet For those of you on LinkedIn, be sure to sign up for the Institute of Business Forecasting and Planning discussion group.  This is an active (and addictive) forum for sharing information and perspectives on a wide variety of forecasting & planning topics. The following question was posted by  Reno DiGenova, the VP – Replenishment,…

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2012 Forecasting Performance Objectives

December 15, 2011
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2012 Forecasting Performance Objectives

Tweet Forecasting performance objectives are usually set in one of three ways: Relative to “best-in-class” industry benchmarks. Improvement over prior year performance. Arbitrarily – based on what management wants or needs to happen. All three are wrong. There are many perils in relying on industry benchmarks to set your own organization’s performance objectives, the most…

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IBF Year End Blog – What we Learned About Forecasting in 2010

December 21, 2010
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IBF Year End Blog – What we Learned About Forecasting in 2010

Tweet Our ability to forecast was met with increasing skepticism in 2010 – and this is a good thing.  A decade ago, the thrill of technological innovation provided hope that more data, bigger computers, and fancier models would one day solve all our forecasting problems.  Yet we now have more data, bigger computers, and fancier…

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IBF Webinar Q&A: What Management Must Know About Forecasting

January 17, 2010
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IBF Webinar Q&A: What Management Must Know About Forecasting

Tweet Below details Questions & Answers from IBF’s Webinar “What Management Must Know About Forecasting.”  If you missed it, no worries.  You can view it complimentary by clicking HERE. 1. If a product is not forecastable, what’s the most appropriate step to move the product to become forecastable? Answer: The most effective way to improve…

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