Tweet Many organizations today are implementing various continuous improvement techniques to manufacturing areas to reduce cost and waste as well as decreasing cycle time. There is value to apply these techniques to business processes to improve the effectiveness of the process. Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) is a critical business process and therefore is a…
Tweet As we ease out of crisis mode and plan for more stable waters, we find ourselves asking how can we take advantage of the upturn, and what will it take to do so? Going back to my undergraduate days of pursuing my degree in Education makes me think of the structure of a lesson…
Tweet Developing accurate forecasts is never easy. The current economic environment makes it even more challenging and many businesses have a bias to over forecast. At the same time, businesses need the most accurate volume forecast possible to enable effective planning and decision making. It is important to understand that this is a business issue,…
Tweet Many firms have no strategy for dealing with unforecastables and some even pretend that all items are statistically forecastable. Statistical tests need to be used to identify those articles which cannot be forecasted with conventional techniques, such as intermittent demand and demand with high variances. For example, low volume and erratic demand may indicate…
Tweet Dr. Jain (Chief Editor of the IBF’s Journal of Business Forecasting), and I have recently been collaborating on an article that is a wake up call for Planning organizations to have their house in order so they can recognize the signals for an economic recovery. I am a proponent for completeness and integrity of…
Tweet It is bad enough that consumer behavior is never 100 percent predictable, but the unpredictable behavior of management also compounds forecasting errors. Over the years I have relived the following situation so much that it has almost become a predictable behavior. Once a month, among my many forecasts, I submit a 30/60/90 day outlook…
Tweet DOW up, DOW down; oil prices spike, oil prices spiral down; jobless claims up, jobless claims steady!! The news is full of contradictions. Is it the start of recovery after what was termed the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression or are we still in the midst of a perfect storm? We think…
Tweet Who defines and says what are best practices? The person speaking? The loudest voice? The person with the most expensive shoes? The person with the most impressive degree? Maybe it is the highest paid consultant? We hired a consulting group and have implemented what we believe to be a best practice consulting group. In…
Tweet No matter where you place the forecasting function, you will have a bias in forecasts unless you create an independent department. Production people tend to over-forecast because it gives them fewer headaches resulting from out of stocks. But if they are evaluated on the basis of inventory, they would prefer under-forecasts. Salespeople have a…
Tweet I was asked recently to clarify my previous objections to a “One Number” planning world! In the late 90’s and early 2000’s there was a movement underfoot to drive the entire organization from a single operating number. In theory that would be a good thing as long as you have the right number. Too…
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