Motivational speaker Lou Tice called it a “Scotoma”—an area of partial alteration to one’s field of vision. Allstate Insurance represents something similar in one of it’s television commercials featuring a man by the name of “Mayhem”. In this particular ad we see Mayhem clinging to the side of an unsuspecting woman’s SUV claiming to...
How often have you heard these words during a meeting in your office? “Say what? Forecast for an unplanned event? Isn’t that like buying flood insurance in Phoenix? Regardless of whether or not we choose to plan for them, catastrophes happen. However planning ahead can mean the difference between success and failure when these...
“So, even a well thought-out forecasting process can be wasteful if it is not done properly.” This was a remark made by one of the attendees who came to hear my “Lean Forecasting & Planning” presentation at IBF’s recent Business Forecasting & Planning Academy @ 2 Levels. This declaration was also one of the...
This past week the mighty LA Lakers, were swept by the Dallas Mavericks in four games. The Lakers had won two straight NBA titles and were favorites of many to three-peat. Immediately after the 4th loss, which turned out to be one of the five worst losses of series deciding games in the history...
I suffer from a recurring dream. In that dream, I am standing in front of 300 Stock Controllers explaining how an external baseline will work alongside causal forecasting. The results of this will generate a Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast which in turn will produce auto sourced algorithms over your Bayesian plan. “Don’t worry though,”...
A big treat in attending a conference is not only learning from attendees, but also having the benefit of one-stop shopping when it comes to vendors in the exhibit hall. These vendors travel across the country, often times lugging huge displays, screens, white papers and swag to meet with current and potential clients and...
Wednesday afternoon kicked off this year’s Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning’s Best Practices Conference with a near-standing room only pre-conference Demand Management Forum. The Forum was led by Mike Gilliand from SAS and a panel of experts who brought the group through three topics: (1) Applying demand management sensing, shaping and creating, (2)...