Sometime during the 20th century sales forecasting went from being a necessary part of someone’s job to being someone’s entire job. Sales forecasting, has made the move from being only 1 step in the inventory/production analyst’s planning to a forecaster’s full time position. This is definitely good news for those of us who wanted to...
Businesses go through change frequently and as we all know, change is difficult because we are human. Change and transformation are necessary for companies to adapt and improve, but in order for change to be effective, many factors need to be addressed simultaneously. Take demand planning and forecasting for example. If you work for...
“Demand Planning”, “Forecasting”, “Brand Operations”, and “Planning” These are not only terms that you will find on my resume, but also the answer I’ve given in social settings when asked what I do for a living. I’ve yet to give an answer without receiving the inevitable follow-up query: What exactly is a Demand Planner?...
I believe that there are two ways your organization can improve the performance of statistical forecasting: 1) Wait for your business to become more forecastable 2) Develop a process to drive continuous improvement in your statistical forecasting approach At PepsiCo Chicago, we have made great progress to improve the performance of our statistical forecasts by...
Last night while I was at the joint APICS/IBF/CSCMP Holiday Networking Collaborative in Boston, MA these three words came to mind, “Strength in numbers.” But before I can explain these three simple words, I should first explain all the abbreviations, right? APICS is the Association for Operations Management, IBF is the Institute of Business...
Go to any supply chain conference, and you will hear it. Yes, the term collaboration is bandied about. It is over-used and often over-hyped in discussions largely without meaning. So, what does it mean? And, what happened to the supply chain collaboration initiatives of the 1990s? Let’s start with the definition. The greatest success...
What do battery operated lawnmowers, $1B of crop protection annual R&D and making chemical drum orders on your iPhone have in common? More than you would think. All of these things have been used as examples of how the world’s leading companies are working to improve their supply chain planning and forecasting process at...
How many times have you heard your Forecast Accuracy is too low and it must improve? Then you think, “It is a forecast!! If I could predict it to 100%, I’d have gone to Vegas and be retired now.” Well, we may not be able to help out your early-retirement plan that comes from...
Below details Questions & Answers from IBF’s Webinar “What Management Must Know About Forecasting.” If you missed it, no worries. You can view it complimentary by clicking HERE. 1. If a product is not forecastable, what’s the most appropriate step to move the product to become forecastable? Answer: The most effective way to improve...
As readers know, we basically have two ways of doing forecasting: 1. Extrapolating from historical trends – univariate forecasting (ie. Time Series Forecasting) 2. Including independent variables such as price that we believe influence movements in sales – causal modeling or regression modeling Comparing the two approaches, the chief advantage of univariate forecasting is...