“Demand Planning”, “Forecasting”, “Brand Operations”, and “Planning” These are not only terms that you will find on my resume, but also the answer I’ve given in social settings when asked what I do for a living. I’ve yet to give an answer without receiving the inevitable follow-up query: What exactly is a Demand Planner?...
I believe that there are two ways your organization can improve the performance of statistical forecasting: 1) Wait for your business to become more forecastable 2) Develop a process to drive continuous improvement in your statistical forecasting approach At PepsiCo Chicago, we have made great progress to improve the performance of our statistical forecasts by...
Our ability to forecast was met with increasing skepticism in 2010 – and this is a good thing. A decade ago, the thrill of technological innovation provided hope that more data, bigger computers, and fancier models would one day solve all our forecasting problems. Yet we now have more data, bigger computers, and fancier...
Go to any supply chain conference, and you will hear it. Yes, the term collaboration is bandied about. It is over-used and often over-hyped in discussions largely without meaning. So, what does it mean? And, what happened to the supply chain collaboration initiatives of the 1990s? Let’s start with the definition. The greatest success...
One of the interesting things about forecasting finished goods is how many functions participate in the development of the forecast and are subsequently impacted by the results. In a typical S&OP and consensus forecasting process, Sales, Operations and Planning collaborate to reach a best forecast to drive the operations and profit forecast for the...
I’m sure that all of us have played the Telephone Game at one time or another. One person starts a message that travels through several people and then we all have a good laugh over how much that message changed by the time it got to the last person. As funny as that can...
Why don’t you have these in stock? Why do you have so many of these in the warehouse? Why is your fill so low? Do these questions seem familiar coming from members of your management team or your customers? Of course they do! They are constantly asked throughout the year as we all try...
“We will what?” I had heard it. We will be doubling shipments in the next 4 months, and this was just the beginning. I cannot say I wasn’t excited. It felt good. Volumes going up.. Its a good problem to have. But the memories of demand sliding unexpectedly were etched clearly in my mind.....
Demand planning and forecasting is a process which, because of its intrinsic focus on “error”, too often invites misguided efforts at producing perfection. Like the alchemists’ quest for gold, the goal is illusory and may cost more than any benefit it yields. Consider that the result of demand planning is only profitable to the...
Eighteen months ago I decided I would put my job on the line if that is what would take to improve our planning processes and implement S&OP. Due to the changes required, some implementation issues, and my own actions; I must admit that I came very close to that line. Fortunately, I survived and...