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“The Terminator” is Stopping our Demand Planning & Forecasting Education – Are we Prepared?
Folks, we must constantly remind ourselves that “process” takes precedence over “technology” and technology should be designed to enable best practices. During the e-revolution many of the process best practices were first identified by those designing demand planning software. For example, the ability to identify exceptions to pre-defined rules in real-time and instantly issue... »
Can a Small Company Create a Demand Responsive Operation and Compete with the Big Boys?
“We will what?” I had heard it. We will be doubling shipments in the next 4 months, and this was just the beginning. I cannot say I wasn’t excited. It felt good. Volumes going up.. Its a good problem to have. But the memories of demand sliding unexpectedly were etched clearly in my mind..... »
Yokohama Tire Canada: Forecast Accuracy and the Cost of Being Right
Demand planning and forecasting is a process which, because of its intrinsic focus on “error”, too often invites misguided efforts at producing perfection. Like the alchemists’ quest for gold, the goal is illusory and may cost more than any benefit it yields. Consider that the result of demand planning is only profitable to the... »
S&OP or BUST! at Land O’Lakes Company
Eighteen months ago I decided I would put my job on the line if that is what would take to improve our planning processes and implement S&OP. Due to the changes required, some implementation issues, and my own actions; I must admit that I came very close to that line. Fortunately, I survived and... »
Can Forecasting Help Me Staff a Specific Hewlett-Packard Call Center at 10:30 am on a Friday?
We can do a good job of predicting this, but the question is “Can we do better?”. The Statistician W. Edwards Deming showed Japan’s auto industry the importance of increasing quality and HP aims to do the same. How do you staff a calling center optimally so that you balance the phones getting answered... »
Rockin’ the S&OP Process at Fender Musical Instruments Corporation
Monday, 8:05am: your boss calls you into his office and says, “I just got back from the Supply Chain Forecasting & Planning Conference. We need to start a S&OP process!” He hands you a 9 inch thick textbook and barks “get it going!!.” So you dutifully read the textbook, gather your team, collate the... »
To Prepare Demand Forecasts, Should We Listen to Our Customers?
If the answer to this question appears to be obvious, please read on! There’s been lots of discussion about how forecasting is done, but much less about what is forecasted. Now, this is an important issue for all forecasters, but none more so than Supply Chain forecasters. Let’s suppose you’re using a particular forecasting... »
IBF Webinar Q&A: What Management Must Know About Forecasting
Below details Questions & Answers from IBF’s Webinar “What Management Must Know About Forecasting.” If you missed it, no worries. You can view it complimentary by clicking HERE. 1. If a product is not forecastable, what’s the most appropriate step to move the product to become forecastable? Answer: The most effective way to improve... »
What Management Must Know About Forecasting
Are there some things you wish your organization’s management knew about forecasting? Those of us who have served time in the forecasting profession know that “serving time” is an apt description of the job. Being a business forecaster is sort of like being in county lock-up – without the benefit of free meals, charming... »
Falling Asleep at Your S&OP Meeting?
I remember the day very clearly when I read Donald J Wheeler’s book “Understanding Variation – The Key to Managing Chaos.” What grabbed my attention was the sterility of the traditional monthly report and, furthermore, the potential for it to be truly misleading. Let’s consider what is usually provided to managers prior to and,... »