Dr. Jain (Chief Editor of the IBF’s Journal of Business Forecasting), and I have recently been collaborating on an article that is a wake up call for Planning organizations to have their house in order so they can recognize the signals for an economic recovery. I am a proponent for completeness and integrity of...
It is bad enough that consumer behavior is never 100 percent predictable, but the unpredictable behavior of management also compounds forecasting errors. Over the years I have relived the following situation so much that it has almost become a predictable behavior. Once a month, among my many forecasts, I submit a 30/60/90 day outlook...
DOW up, DOW down; oil prices spike, oil prices spiral down; jobless claims up, jobless claims steady!! The news is full of contradictions. Is it the start of recovery after what was termed the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression or are we still in the midst of a perfect storm? We think...
Who defines and says what are best practices? The person speaking? The loudest voice? The person with the most expensive shoes? The person with the most impressive degree? Maybe it is the highest paid consultant? We hired a consulting group and have implemented what we believe to be a best practice consulting group. In...
No matter where you place the forecasting function, you will have a bias in forecasts unless you create an independent department. Production people tend to over-forecast because it gives them fewer headaches resulting from out of stocks. But if they are evaluated on the basis of inventory, they would prefer under-forecasts. Salespeople have a...
I was asked recently to clarify my previous objections to a “One Number” planning world! In the late 90’s and early 2000’s there was a movement underfoot to drive the entire organization from a single operating number. In theory that would be a good thing as long as you have the right number. Too...
No I’m not talking about the Chicago Cubs or deep dish pizza. Rather, I’m talking about our third Best of the Best S&OP Conference, co-sponsored by APICS and IBF last month. It was quite a success with a very nice turnout, particularly when one considers the state of the economy. And the speakers –...
I recently came across this white paper with the above title, written by a company called AGENTRICS, which I found very strange and contradictory. Here are four reasons why: 1. The paper claims since we cannot forecast (meaning 100% accurately), forecasting is unnecessary. The practice of forecasting has caused and will continue to cause...
It’s a warm June morning in Omaha, the phone rings and you answer. The man on the other end of the line explains that there has been an explosion at your production site in North Carolina, thoughts race through your mind, first to the safety of your employees, then to the condition of your...
We all know a strike, natural disaster, large scale power failure/ black out, major retail customer dropping you as a supplier, major competitor dropping out of the market, recall of a product due to contamination and more can have a major impact on your demand, for the worse and for the worse (yes, I...